See the future of your stocks unveiled
THE PARTY IS OVER!!!
We are entering BEAR territory!
STOCKPLUNGE IS STILL MODERATE - MORE TO COME!
Nobody can predict how fast this will go - but plunges are always swift.
Here are the supportlines in the S&P graphic (24-8-2015):
As you can see we are plunging into deep water. If the support @1820 is broken then there is no stop before...... 1377!!!!! THAT is a 25% FREEFALL!!!!
>>>24-08-2015 EUR/USD shows a BREAKOUT!
The chart shows a deep abyss just ahead! (21-8-2015 after close)
We will go back to 1069........ (!!!!!) That is a 50% drop! SELL SELL SELL SELL NOW!
21-8-2015 THE DAY THAT THE BULLRUN ENDED
By S&P broke through all her resistance levels today. Now @ 1972. That's the crucial level. Below it we go to....... yes, crashlevels in sight.
31-1-2015 ON BREAKING POINT
This week we saw 4 interesting developments:
1 - a new low in oil - followed by a 8%jump
2 - a short-lived sell-off in silver (30-1-2015)
3 - the end of the ECB-QE-surge
4 - Apple defeats MSFT
Microsoft is not MSFT anymore. The stock lost 15% in a few days and is in @40 again. At the same time Apple reported beter than expected numbers and reached an all-time-high of $120.
More and more our world is showing signs of a winner-takes-it-all "economy". Apple is now the worlds biggest and most profitable company. The fact that companies can become so powerfull shows that the world is changing. From several marketplaces we are evolving to one big world market. Only a few companies manage to stay on top. It makes the economy more vulnarable. Perhaps we have to add some names to the "Too big too fail"-list soon.
The stellar performance of AAPL (from $109 to $120) together with the performance of AMZN prevented the S&P from a steep loss. The surge of AAPL alone added 6 points to the S&P500 index. Nevertheless the S&P is nearing an important pivot-point @ 1974. We are only 20 point above that support point. Below that level we face a deep black hole.
The ECB will start a QE-programm and in line with the printing of more money the EURO went down against the Dollar. This process is going on already for a long time and will continue (see chart) till 0,88 (now @1,1287)
Gold and Silver are strengthening. The recent sell-off makes the chart stronger. It looks that what I already preach for some months is now happening. Gold and Silver strongly up and stockmarkets falling.
What about oil? Oil will fall further. $36 is in the charts. Around $40 is support. The big oil comapnies will feel more and more the pain of a low oilprice. Companies like XOM are perfect shorts.
The trigger for events to happen could be in the Ukraine crisis. Peace is over and they started fighting again. This crisis will bring more tension between Russia and the the west. Things become dangerous when people can't buy food anymore. Watch Russia......
13-1-2015 TUESDAY THE THIRTEENTH
2015 started in a total other mood than 2014. In the first week the market went down vigorously on monday and tuesday. The second week started with a monday down again. Oil is at a 9-year low. It drags down all oil-related stocks including heavy weigts Exxon, Chevron and Shell. Let's have a look at the OIL chart. No bottom in sight. Looks like we will see the low of 2009 ($36) again. Many think that a low oil-price is good for the economy. Is it? Perhaps in the long run it is good for consumerspending and in that way retail companies and consumer related manufacturers will profit. But in the short run the a low oil price is bringing havoc to the markets.
Why? Three main reasons:
1- Total oil and oil-related companies have a business value of 40 trillion ($40.000.000.000.000). Approx. half of their value is based on known oil reserves. If half of these assets evaporate because of a lower oilprice valuation then 25% of the business value of these companies has disappeared overnight. In other words 10 Trillion dollar is gone. These 10 trillion are losses that investors in oil related companies have to bear. At this moment a company like Exxon (XOM) trades @92 10% below the top of $104. Seen the 60% drop in oilprices this is not a fair valuation. If these low oilprices continue then EXXON will in the end trade at least 25% below the top - i.e around 70-75. It is only a matter of time.
2 - The low oil-price makes it difficult to start new (oil) projects. Most of them are not profitable with oil-prices below $75. This means - no new business and no new activity for the service related oil industry (like drillers). A company like Transocean (RIG) will have difficulties to get new orders.
HN:Stay out of these dangerous waters!
3 - Upstream activity (exploration) will be hit hard by the low oilprice. But the same applies to downstream activity. A lower oil-price means a lower gasoline price. If we assume that the margin stays the same (as a percentage) then lower gasoline prices will lead to a lower absolute margin and profit.
Those 3 reasons will bring the valuation of the whole oilindustry down to a valuation as we saw in the $15-a-barrel-era.
The result of this tremendous loss in assetvaluation is a huge loss for stockinvestors. In fact all the money that the FED blew into the markets (QE1+2+3) has disappeared (the 10 trillion). What will stay is debt that the companies carry in their books. In the end it will be the banks and the investor community who will bleed for this enormous loss in company valuation.
You can't spend money that you have lost. And that is the reason that a lower oilprice won't bring higher consumerspending in the short run. In fact we face the risk of a total meltdown of markets because of the high leverage (financing) that (small) investors use.
2015 will be a year to remember - a year that started with a down market - a year without a bull run - a year with low oil prices - a year with a full blown stockcrash - as never seen before - gold and silver will shine.
18-12-2014 THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW
Markets zoomed higher based on the fact that cheap money will be available for another 3 month at least. The FED didn't act but will do so in time. Again is clear that the market is driven by too much money that is available at an artificial intrest rate. The question we sshould ask us is: "What will happen when money isn't unlimited avaible without costs....". And: "Why is the intrest rate at zero?".
Friday 19-12-2014 we will see an end to this wave of buyers and we will see that the topquates are 5 tics below the last tops. No new ATH's for the indexes - and that tells also something about what the markets expect for 2015. An intrestrate hike lingers above the market. At some time in future the free lunch will be over for banks and indebted companies.
2015 will be a year to remember. The risk of
16-12-2014 BLACK TUESDAY FOREPLAY
Crashing markets all over the globe. Russia, Thailand, Indonesia were hit hard. The US markets were very nervous and the Nasdaq felt the first wave of sell orders due to margin calls in the last 30 minutes of trade. The crash is gaining momentum and will be in full force Thursday 18-12-2014. It still not too late to leave the market!
The damage of this (mini) BLACK TUESDAY is:
XOM -0.6 (Opened 2% higher)
European markets were higher-lower-higher and will open lower on BLACK WEDNESDAY setting thee pace for the rest of the day.
And the ruble? Let's just forget it - last time the Ruble was so low Russia defaulted.
BTW: The total oilmarket has a value of 3.8 Trillion USD - half of it is financed by banks. The other half is gone because the oilprice plunged 50%. So - 1.9 Trillion USD vanished in thin air and what is left is debt (thanks QE for filling the bubble).
If you asked yourself the question - Where has all the money gone? Now you now the answer - is has turned to debt without collateral. It will be especially the Russian banks that will have the majority of this poisened debt. How they will solve this problem? The same way as we solved our bankproblems. The Russian taxpayers will get the bill. And if you ask yourself the question - Why is there a stockcrash? The answer: because 1.9 Trillion dollar vanished in thin air. The people who lost this money will do everything to fill the gap. Russia for example is selling oill (future contracts) as a madman - only to get money to pay their bills. We all see everyday what havoc this lower oilprices bring to the stockmarket. 1.9 Trillion is gone....... - it will bring down the total global economy - and it all starts with a very normal - but very, very BIG - stockcrash!
Heh - it almost XMAS - so let's give this crash a positive touch - I'm calling it the XMASCRASH from now on!
15-12-2014 DOOMSDAY MONDAY
A historic Monday with falling prices in all sectors and across the globe.
The Rouble hit a new low and lost this year 50% against the US Dollar.
The Moscow market was down 10%.
OIL was down another 4.3% and hit a new low @55.35
THE total US stockmarket is now 5% down from its ATH.
In the last 10 minutes of trading we saw some limited forced selling.
We are at the brink of a serious downfall.
APPLE closed down @ 108.23
FACEBOOK closed down @ 76.99
COCA COLA was down 0,8% and lost another 1% in aftermarket trading.
Most stocks were under continuous pressure during the day and closed lower.
But the expected strong pressure caused by forced selling was not seen yet. The scenario presented yesterday will take effect the moment the market is down at least -6% calculated from its ATH (so the DOW has to go below 17000).
Tomorrow is "Black Tuesday" and the markets will remain their crash course.
Be well - be short!
14-12-2014 THE DAY BEFORE DOOMSDAY MONDAY
The market is on the brink of a total collapse. Already since october it is clear that we are at the top of a long bull-run. The market was waiting for a trigger to start the downfall and unexpectanly found this trigger in falling oilprices.
In the second week of december the stockmarket in the US alone lost 2 billion in value (-5%) and this is only the beginning of what is to come. Last Friday we saw in the last hour of trading a Tsunami of sell orders caused by margin calls of indebted investors. This caused a fast slide of the stockprices and especially the tech-stocks were beaten down in that last hour with 1% or more,
Today (Sunday 14-12-2014) the markets in the Middle East went down with an unprecedended speed. Dubai - 7,6%. Panic was spreading and the margin calls were the reason behind this plunge of the markets.
What can we expect in the next days?
Have a look at the graphs of the market indexes and you'll see for yourself where the market is heading - DOWN DOWN DOWN.
Support levels are broken and we face a deep abys. This not only looks like the BIG ONE - IT IS THE BIG ONE. The predicted great crash 2014. Readers of this webside are already short so they have nothing to fear. My recommendation is to double short positions ASAP.
Predicted quotes for APPLE and FACEBOOK
The marketleaders will be hit most on the way down (because those stocks are near their top and widespread).
Based on some assumptions I made a calculation FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS in which the market is driven down by margin calls.
This is the result (PREDICTION 14-12-2014 17:46):
APPLE (- 54%) FACEBOOK (- 53%)
12/12 109,75 12/12 77,83
15/12 101,83 15/12 75,31
16/12 90,33 16/12 70,08
17/12 74,13 17/12 59,20
18/12 51,33 (Low) 18/12 36,56 (Low)
After thursday the market will come back to higher levels.
Henri's positions @ 14-12-2014:
Short S&P @2102
Short S&P @2084
Short FB @78.94
Short DAX @10084
I will short the Dow at any price tomorrow.
The DOW and S&P reach new all time high's almost everyday. At some point the party will be over and the market will turn abruptly. Silver and Gold have ended their downfall. Silver shows a breakout on the charts today (25-11-2014). Is this a first sign that the shift in the markets has begun? Watch GOLD! And remember: "Sell high, buy low!"
Henri's positions: Silver (long @15.17) and S&P (short @2110)
S&P and DOW test long term support lines today (27-10-2014).
Steep fall ahead when support @16666 (DOW) and @1950 (S&P) are broken. WATCH OUT FOR NEXT WEDENSDAY (QE will end in USA)
Markets could react with a 20% - 40% fall. This fall will be so fast that nobody has the opportunity to react. So - BE PREPARED. Go short and remember "cash is always king!"
STOCK MARKET SLIDE WILL CONTINUE! (16-10-2014)
As predicted the markets are bound for an unprecdented correction (-70%). Don't catch a falling knife!!! We will see this downward momentum gain in power during october AND november!
Markets are in free fall! (15-10-2014)
Going down is always faster than going up! NETFLIX is a good example!
GOLD and SILVER are the only hedge against a bear stockmarket!
Markets are confused! (11-10-2014)
They sense something very bad is in the air (11-10-2014)
The contraction of the German Economy hits the world economy harder than anybody expected.
The Ukraine crisis and the connected sanctions have a serious impact on Europe.
>>> What we see happening is the first stage of a full market retreat. >>>As always the crash will hit the unprepared hard and unexpected.
>>>Short the stockmarket and go long in gold in silver NOW!
>>> Tech stocks are the most vulnerable of all (FB, GOOGLE, MSFT, APPLE, YAHOO, AMZN).
Henri (2-10-2014): Markets are in full retreat - what we see is a run to the exit downstairs (Last warning!)
Henri (30-9-2014): The weak euro brought commodities down - Gold and Silver will roar back!
Henri (16-9-2014): Yesterday (Mayday Monday)we saw in the US-techstocks a prelude to a broad coming sell-off (high flying stocks like LINKEDIN, FACEBOOK, TWITTER, TESLA lost 4 to 10% in a few hours)
Henri (25-8-2014): "After 4-9-2014: Cash is king, but gold will rule as emperor! "
2-9-2014 Markets are nervous - something is in the air. Be alert. Market is making a U-turn.
Monday Monday - Mayday Mayday!
(Warning posted 16-8-2014)
Monday 1-9-2014 is nearing. In the week starting 1-9-2014 two important lines at the DJI chart will cross - indicating either a steep fall or a big move upwards. At the end of that week we will see what direction the market takes. Monday the 8th will show the way!
(Warning posted 9-8-2014)
Markets are still very nervous. No major reaction yet, but it seems we are at a stand still - the sound of silence before the storm hits? Gold and Silver are low priced - perfect time to buy!
"Say do you remember, crashing in september?"
Beware and be prepared!
Wednesday 3/9 and thursday 4/9 are dates to be on HIGH alert.
After the top an abyss is looming...... Selling high is never a bad move.
We are running out of time - sell and take your profit NOW!
Monday 15/9/2014 will be too late! MONDAY MAYDAY has arrived! (Warning 12-9-2014)
And remember: Henri told you first!
Is the US bull market running out? Henri says: YES! (22-8-2014)
23-11-2014 09:30 SILVER OUTBREAK @16.62!
05-11-2014 14:25 ORDI Resistance @ 1,22 and Support @1,02
12-10-2014 01:30 AAPL diving below @98 will bring APPLE down to @80.
12-10-2014 00:30 SILVER will TRIPLE when it closes above @17.30!!
11-10-2014 23:00 FACEBOOK added - SELL - SELL SELL! (now @72 but heading to @40)
11-10-2014 23:00 GOLD is a strong buy when it closes above @1270! Ride to @2000 looming!
11-10-2014 20:00 S&P on breaking point - Diving below @1888 is a deep dive!
2-10-2014 18:00 ORDINA collapses as predicted @ 27/8/2014
24-9-2014 16:50 AEX makes a tired impression
24-9-2014 16:00 ORDINA support is broken @ 1,94
18-9-2014 09:30 Scottish referendeum "Too close to call" but Henri expect a "YES"
17-9-2014 24:00 FED announcement was non-event - no change in policy
16-9-2014 24:00 Mayday Monday showed a small sell-off in tech-stocks. No blood on the Street yet.
10-9-2014 22:00 AEX chart new update - Downtrend still active - 420 level is support and resistance
10-9-2014 22:00 EURO/USD chart added - Tradingrange 1.2885 - 1.3085. Support @ 1.2000
9-9-2014 13:05 DAX is added to the charts - will be followed on a weekly basis
3-9-2014 17:28 AAPL is on the way down - end of the bull-run! ALERT: @86.00 looming!
2-9-2014 20:00 GOLD chart added. Breaking @1332 will catapult GOLD to @1534.
31-8-2014 24:00 S&P500 3 charts added. Will trigger negative momentum below 2000
31-8-2014 24:00 DJI 2 charts added. Breaking 17060 (downwards) will start steep fall.
27-8-2014 10:49 Outbreak ROOD
27-8-2014 10:26 Actual chart of AEX added. Seems out of steam for now.
27-8-2014 10:12 Actual chart ORDINA added.
26-8-2014 22:00 The chart of S&P500 - topformation and supportlevels
25-8-2014 09:56 An update of the AEX-chart is posted
22-8-2014 --:-- An update of the AEX-chart is posted
Analysis: Daniel Sandford, BBC News
"The risk of the Russian aid convoy causing a further deterioration in relations with Ukraine is now very high. Because the International Committee of the Red Cross is not part of the convoy, the government in Kiev may choose not to recognise it as a humanitarian mission."
Day 2 of the creating of the topformation in many stocks.
And as you know: That is where you should SELL!
18-8-2014 20:16 GMT DJI @16832
The DJI managed to close the GAP-down and creates a downward channel (max. @16870). @16369 is a support point that should be watched. In between is the trading range.
15-8-2014 @market close AEX topped @400 as predicted and lost quickly ground after that. Everybody who didn't close his long positions @ that level is a fool. We will go south fast now. Ukraine crisis is escalating and will have major impact on the European stocks.
15-8-2014 11:30 GMT AEX reaches resistance line and will close near 400 due to options expiration
14-8-2014 18:55 GMT DJI Is setting the stage for the way back. @16735-@16780 is the highest point where an intermediate top could be formed.
14-8-2014 12:55 GMT DJI managed with a fierce push to get through the 16633 level and is now encoutering resistance in the area 16633-16672. Correction phase should be over now. I expect that the DJI will soon test the support @16520 again. Without a new All Time High we are creating the channel for the downtrend now.
13-8-2014 14:45 GMT The DJI tries to escape from gravity. @16633 tough resistance - won't get through!
12-8-2014 16:20 GMT GOLD will test resistance level 1326 soon. If broken GOLD will start a new uptrend leading to a new All Time High. For more charts have a look under the tab "Gold & Silver".
12-8-2014 15:40 GMT DJI is drilling a hole @16560.
DJI is at an intermediate top and will go lower from here (16620 11-8-2014 18:00 GMT)
DJI @ 16580 (11-8-2014 20:55) we will close around 16550
What a beautifull chart and so predictable! The S&P500 11-8-2014 (@21:25) is consolidating a topformation. The Fibonacci circle shows where we will leave exit the channel. The 1930 level is key. Tops and lows are heading south. If we break 1898 then there will be a short time that we will see a free fall.
@ 21:45 S&P heading towards 1930 again:
@ USA Marketclose 11-8-2014: In this DJI 1-minute candlestickchart the Fibonacci Bows show us the sellingaction as granates hitting the chart, producing shockwaves, and preventing the DOW to climb further. @16616 the shortterm uptrend was broken. Several sellwaves brought the index down to a close @ 16570: